Sunday, December 28, 2008

Growing up and new ideology part 2

Graham writing came during the Great Depression, this probably led him to have an extremely conservative investment philosophy. His main goal is to not lose money. He figured doing so with companies that have assets valued more than market value. That strategy applied with the Margin of Safety concept would prove to be the building blocks for one of the most popular investing strategy around. If the worst case scenario occurs, the company liquidates and the investor can recuperate the money invested.

This leads me to NED, which by having more current assets than market value was a buy to me. I am speculating that the lawsuit against it will be successfully defended. I am a bit worried about some other aspects of NED:

- Being a foreign company, I am worried about potential misleading (see fradulent) accounting.
- It could be a fake company for all I know, a ponzi scheme, that is a possibility. Though, I did ask people from China if they have ever heard of the company, and if they do in fact sell DLD (Digital learning devices). To which, I was assured that they do in fact exist.

Not being an accountant by trade, I don't know how one would falsify numbers, so I ordered a book on this topic. I hope to learn a thing or two and disect NED's 10-K with this knowledge.

The other company I invested in, Google, is a well known company. I always told myself that I would never invest in a tech company, because the valuations are always very high. But google was selling for a relatively good price (270) and I thought that its future prospect was bright. Following Fisher's preachings, I looked at the possibility of growth coming from Google. They have been growing rapidly since their IPO, and I see no reason why they couldn't continue on this path. They have yet to monetize Youtube, Android. They have a search monopoly, online advertising monopoly as well. I came to realization that I couldn't spend 1 day without seeing a google ad. That plus the fact that they can still grow outside the US, leaves me optimistic about its future. I expect them to grow at a 20% for the next 10 years, followed by a subdued 5% growth for the following 10 years. It is ambitious, I know, but I simply cannot see how a competitor can just overturn google. Switching search engine is not as easy as switching social network (myspace to facebook), especially when google is widely regarded as being the best search engine around.

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